Juniper Research predicts 209% increase in A2A payment by 2029

A new study from Juniper Research forecasts a dramatic rise in global account-to-account (A2A) payment transactions over the next five years. According to the report, Global A2A Payments Market: 2024-2029, A2A transactions are expected to grow from 60 billion in 2024 to 186 billion by 2029, representing a remarkable 209% increase.

A2A payments, which involve direct bank-to-bank transfers without the need for intermediaries, have gained significant momentum worldwide as instant payment methods become more common. The growth is attributed to the increasing desirability of A2A payments among merchants due to their instant settlement capabilities and lower transaction fees compared to traditional card payments. This shift signals a transformative change in the global payments landscape, according to researchers.

Open banking: A catalyst for A2A growth

The study highlights that the expansion of open banking initiatives has been a critical driver of A2A payment growth. Open banking enables consumers and businesses to authorize third-party providers to access their financial data and initiate payments directly from their bank accounts. This innovation has paved the way for more flexible, transparent, and efficient A2A payment solutions.

One such solution, variable recurring payments (VRPs), has emerged as a game-changer. VRPs allow customers to connect authorized payment providers to their bank accounts to facilitate recurring payments within predetermined limits. This method provides more flexibility and transparency than traditional direct debits.

Research author Matthew Purnell, a research analyst at Juniper, noted, “VRPs provide a service not easily replicable beyond A2A, boosting A2A’s potential. Vendors must capitalize on this opportunity and offer merchants A2A-specific solutions that enhance consumer payment experiences like VRPs, improving satisfaction and rewarding repeated payments.”

The report also found that A2A payments are gaining traction even in traditionally card-dominated markets like the United States. The recent launch of FedNow, the latest U.S. real-time payments rail, has created new opportunities for A2A payments by offering a low-cost alternative to card transactions.

With an average transaction fee of just 4 cents compared to the 3.5 percent fee typical of card payments, FedNow provides a compelling economic case for merchants and businesses to adopt A2A payment options, researchers stated.

Types and Benefits of A2A Payments

A2A payments can be categorized into two types: push payments and pull payments. Push payments, such as bank transfers or instant payments, require the customer to manually initiate the transfer. These are typically used for one-off payments.

Pull payments, like direct debits, allow businesses to withdraw funds from a customer’s account with prior consent, making them ideal for recurring payment models like subscriptions.

A key advantage of A2A payments is their ability to provide a seamless, friction-free payment experience by eliminating the need for intermediaries and repetitive data entry. Open banking technology further enhances this experience by using APIs to connect banks directly with third-party providers, allowing for instant, real-time payments.

This combination of A2A payments with open banking creates a streamlined process that is both cost-efficient and convenient, making it increasingly attractive to businesses and consumers alike, according to researchers.

Fueled by real-time payments, reduced fraud

Juniper’s research also suggests that recent investments in national payment rails are supporting the rise of A2A payments globally. Over the past decade, more than 80 percent of central banks have enhanced their payment infrastructures, fostering a more competitive and secure environment for financial transactions. Countries like Brazil and Australia have even established regulatory sandboxes to encourage innovation and accelerate development in their payment rails.

These investments not only support real-time payment capabilities, reducing the delays associated with traditional bank transfers, but also help mitigate the risk of fraud. Traditional card payments, which account for over $24 billion in annual fraud losses, are increasingly vulnerable.

In contrast, A2A payments, particularly when combined with open banking technology, offer enhanced security features that naturally align with the Strong Customer Authentication requirements implemented in Europe in 2021. This regulation mandates multi-factor authentication, reducing the risk of fraud and chargeback losses without compromising user experience.

Consumer preferences and future outlook

The study underscores that shifting consumer preferences, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, are driving the demand for more efficient and secure payment methods. Open banking-powered apps have already gained traction in Europe, with over half of Britons using them regularly. Additionally, research by GoCardless shows that bank debits have become the preferred payment method for subscriptions in markets like the UK, France, and Germany.

Looking ahead, the potential for A2A payments extends far beyond European markets. As younger generations, particularly Gen Z, continue to exhibit a cautious stance toward credit card debt and favor direct, digital payment methods, governments and businesses worldwide will likely adapt to these preferences, researchers noted. The purchasing power of Gen Z, whose income is expected to comprise over a quarter of the world's total by 2031, will be a significant factor influencing the adoption of A2A payments globally, they added.

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