Digital wallet users to dominate by 2030

Digital wallets are poised to become the dominant mode of payment worldwide, with the number of users expected to exceed 6 billion by 2030, or three-quarters of the world's population, according to a new study from Juniper Research.

Currently, Juniper estimates that 4.4 billion people use apps like Apple Pay, Google Pay, Venmo and Zelle to make purchases in stores and online. Juniper expects that number to increase by 35 percent over the next five years, underscoring the rapid acceleration of digital payments across both mature and emerging markets.

With convenience, flexibility and innovation driving adoption, digital wallets are set to become the default financial interface for consumers across the globe, redefining how they store, spend and manage money, Juniper said in a statement.

Differentiation key to success

The Juniper report highlights how as the market becomes increasingly saturated, differentiation will hinge on value-added services rather than basic functionality. Features such as buy now, pay later options, virtual cards, and digital identity integration are set to play crucial roles in attracting and retaining users.

Digital wallet providers, the study noted, will need to deliver flexible platforms that can accommodate multiple wallet types—from stored value and staged wallets to cryptocurrency-based options—while supporting diverse payment methods, including cards and account-to-account transfers. (Staged wallets involve two distinct stages: a funding stage, where the user loads money into the wallet, and a payment stage.)

Loyalty and rewards programs will also drive growth. Programs like cash back, points and exclusive deals are not only influencing consumer preferences but also providing merchants with tangible benefits like increased customer spending and reduced transaction fees, Juniper noted.

"Changing user behavior such as card usage, particularly when it is long-established, means providing incentives. As the digital wallet space becomes increasingly saturated, differentiation using rewards and other capabilities, such as gamification or super-app features, will be vital to success," said Thomas Wilson, research analyst at Juniper.

In developed economies, where card penetration and digital payment adoption are already high, the addition of gamified experiences, personalized offers and super-app functionalities could become the key to retaining user engagement, according to the report. Meanwhile, in emerging markets, the growth opportunity lies in targeting underbanked and unbanked populations.

Banking-like experiences, interoperability

Juniper's comprehensive analysis indicates that mobile money services are evolving to offer banking-like capabilities, such as savings, credit and insurance. For digital wallet providers to remain competitive they need to expand their offerings beyond simple transaction services, analysts advised.

Platforms that fail to evolve risk losing relevance to mainstream financial institutions that are integrating digital wallet-like features into their mobile banking apps.

The research also underlines the importance of interoperability and cross-border usability. As global commerce and travel rebound, users increasingly expect wallets that work seamlessly across countries, currencies and regulatory environments. Providers capable of delivering that level of integration will gain a significant edge in the next growth cycle, the report concluded.

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