Thanksgiving weekend expected to draw record number of shoppers

Thanksgiving weekend is expected to draw a record 186.9 million shoppers, according to a survey just released by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insight & Analytics. That's 3 million more shoppers than the previous record of 183.4 million, set last year.

Prosper surveyed 8,000 adult consumers about their shopping plans for the weekend, defined as Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, and extrapolated the findings to the broader U.S. population.

"The holidays are an important part of many consumers' budgets, and that trend is especially true this season," said Katherine Cullen, vice president of industry and consumer insights at the NRF. "As a record number of shoppers are expected this Thanksgiving weekend, retailers are prepared to meet the needs of consumers with great value and convenience."

While promotions will span the entire five-day holiday weekend, Black Friday remains the most popular day, with the survey projecting that about 70 percent of consumers—an estimated 130.4 million adults—expect to shop on that day. The second most popular day will be Cyber Monday, with 40 percent of consumers—about 73.9 million—expected to shop.

Among the 36 percent of respondents who said they might shop on Saturday—equivalent to an estimated 67 million adults—80 percent indicated they are considering doing so to support local businesses. The Saturday following Thanksgiving has in recent years come to be known as Small Business Saturday.

"Many Americans consider shopping to be an important part of their Thanksgiving holiday and one of the best ways to get deals on gifts," said Prosper Vice President Phil Rist. "Of those planning to take advantage of sales, over half say it's because the deals are too good to pass ups. Others point to the tradition, or simply say they like to start their holiday shopping during the long weekend."

Record-setting weekend in record-setting year

On Nov. 6, 2025, the NRF forecast that holiday spending will surpass $1 trillion for the first time ever. The trade association defines the holiday-shopping period as running from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31.

According to the Prosper-NRF survey of 8,000 U.S. adults, 58 percent of respondents said they had already begun their holiday shopping by early November. On average, those shoppers reported completing about one-quarter (26 percent) of their planned purchases.

Based on survey findings, the top categories consumers plan to gift this season are:

• Clothing and accessories (50 percent of respondents),
• Gift cards (43 percent), and
• Toys (32 percent).

The NRF projects total gift-card spending will reach $29.1 billion, up from $28.6 billion in 2024. Survey participants said they expect to purchase between three and four gift cards, with an estimated average per-person spend of $171.31. Restaurants remain the most popular gift-card category (selected by 27 percent of respondents), followed by bank-issued cards (25 percent), department stores (25 percent), and coffee shops (20 percent).

Debit cards win popularity contest

For the fifth consecutive year, debit cards ranked as the most popular payment method for holiday gifts, with 44 percent of survey consumers saying they plan to use them. Credit cards followed at 37 percent, and cash at 16 percent. Fifty-nine percent of those surveyed said they expect to use digital wallets and apps—consistent with previous years, according to NRF.

Roughly two-thirds (67 percent) of consumers surveyed said they plan to embrace the spirit of giving by engaging in at least one charitable activity this season. The most common intentions include monetary donations to a charity or cause (32 percent), donating items (31 percent), and making purchases from retailers or brands that support social causes (20 percent).

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