Tuesday, November 22, 2022
An estimated 166.3 million consumers are planning to shop during the five-day weekend that begins on Thanksgiving Day, according to a new survey from the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. That's almost 8 million more people than last year on Thanksgiving weekend, and the highest estimate since NRF began tracking this data in 2017.
Separately, the market research firm eMarketer expects U.S. consumers to spend $37.3 billion for online purchases, alone, from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday.
These and related research reveal how American consumers are a resilient lot, ready to amp up spending, both online and in store this holiday season.
"While there is much speculation about inflation's impact on consumer behavior, our data tells us that this Thanksgiving holiday weekend will see robust store traffic with a record number [of shoppers] taking advantage of value pricing," said NRF president and CEO Michael Shay. Shay added that NRF is "optimistic" that strong sales will continue through the holiday season.
The NRF earlier this month forecast that holiday sales during November and December would grow between 6 and 8 percent over 2021 spending, and total between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion. Last year, year-end holiday sales shattered records, growing by 13.5 percent year-over-year.
"While consumers continue to save the bulk of their holiday shopping for later in November and December, some of that spending has shifted to October," said Phil Rist, Prosper executive vice president for strategy. "This year, 18 percent of holiday shoppers have completed at least half of their holiday shopping. While this is on par with last year, it is up from only 11 percent a decade ago."
The U.S. Census Bureau data seems to bear out the trend. It recently reported that retail sales in October were up 1.3 percent over September sales and 8.3 percent year-over-year. In September, sales were up 0.5 percent month-over-month and 7.9 percent year-over-year.
Black Friday will be the most popular shopping day this weekend, followed by Cyber Monday, the NRF said. Among the 114.9 million Americans who expect to shop on Black Friday, 67 percent told NRF-Prosper they expect to head to brick-and-mortar shops, which is up slightly, from 64 percent in 2021.
That closely mirrors data reported by The Strawhecker Group and the Electronic Transactions Association regarding consumer holiday shopping plans. The two organizations surveyed 1,000 consumers in October and found high percentages plan to shop both online and in-store this year; just 22 percent plan to shop only online. eMarketer expects online sales to near $10 billion on Black Friday, a 3.9 percent increase over 2021. On Cyber Monday Americans are expected to spend $11.84 billion online.
TSG and ETA also queried consumers on their preferred payment methods, and reported growing use of new digital methods like digital wallets and buy now pay later. "The survey found that when it comes to adopting new payments technology, ease of use is most important," said ETA CEO Jodie Kelley.
Twenty percent of consumers told ETA-TSG they plan to use BNPL this holiday season; 28 percent plan to use digital wallets. 
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