Holiday Sales, What's Up?
You have probably already heard or read some of the predictions and concerns over the 1995 Christmas season, and if you have a "nice" Bankcard or Check Guarantee residual income base, you may already have become concerned about what your December 1995 and January 1996 rebates may look like.
This year, Macy's and other jittery retailers began cutting prices early in November in response to dismal October sales, when retailers averaged the lowest gain from the previous month since June 1991.
Analysts report that the process continued on Friday, November 17, 1995, when stores from Bloomingdale's to Nordstrom began advertising markdowns of as much as 50% on some fall clothes and other merchandise.
Bankcard numbers, however, seem to be fine, even if retailers may have to discount more deeply than "Christmas' Past". Visa, as an example reported that the November 24th and 25th sales volume in 1995 was up in all categories against the same two days in 1994.
Overall retail merchants are up 17.9%, with Mail and Phone Order up the most at 25.0%, Electronic up 21.9%, Discount Stores up 14.2% and Department Stores up only 10.5%, perhaps accounting for the discounting actions of Macy's, Bloomingdale's and Nordstrom in November.
The weak season starting numbers may indicate that consumers are focused on the end of the shopping period, since over the last few years they have waited for big discounts and promotions during that final week. Last year, five of the top ten shopping days were in the last week before Christmas. With an extra day and a full weekend of shopping right before Christmas compared to last year, we expect a surge at the end that could boost overall same-store sales in the 3 to 5 % range.
Finally, it appears from the recent USA Today survey, as well as the American Express Retail Index, consumers plan to use checks during Christmas 1995, nearly as often as Major Credit Cards and Store charge cards, combined, and second only to cash purchases.
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