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Velera releases its Payments Index: January 2026
Thursday, January 15, 2026 — 16:58:39 (UTC)
St. Petersburg, Fla., Jan. 15, 2026—Today, Velera – the nation’s premier payments CUSO and an integrated financial technology solutions provider – published the January edition of the Velera Payments Index, presenting updates on credit card balances, delinquencies and mobile wallet activity, along with the conclusion of our three-part 2025 holiday spending analysis. In December, consumer spending growth continued its resilient pace despite lackluster consumer sentiment. While credit and debit activity were both positive for the month, debit year-over-year growth continued to outpace credit activity. The 12-month rate of inflation through December remained unchanged at 2.7% in the first look at this metric since the government shutdown. In the preliminary January 2026 results, the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment inched up for the second month to 54.0 from 52.9. It’s important to keep these small gains in perspective, as the index is down by over 24% compared to January 2025, with an emphasis on higher prices and a softening labor market. For the December Consumer Confidence Index, consumer sentiment dropped by 3.8 points to 89.1 and is the fifth consecutive month of decline. Confidence dropped among all age groups, most income levels and across all political affiliations (Democrats, Republicans and Independents). The income levels showing some optimism were those under $15k and over $125k annually. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the overall unemployment rate for December softened to 4.4%, or 7.5 million people. The economy added 50,000 jobs in December, below the 73,000 estimated in the Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists. December job growth came in food service and drinking places, as well as the healthcare and social assistance sectors, while job losses were reported in the retail trade sector. For December, the ADP jobs report, which tracks changes in U.S. private employment, showed an increase of 41,000. Growth was centered in the education and health services areas, as well as the leisure and hospitality sectors. The ADP payroll population represents 26 million U.S. private-sector employees. For December, the BLS reported a 0.3% increase in inflation for the month. This kept the 12-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.7%. The largest factor contributing to the rise in inflation was the index for shelter, which increased by 0.4%. Also contributing to the increase was food/groceries, up 0.7%. While the energy index increased by 0.3%, gasoline, a subset of energy, decreased year over year. Core CPI, which excludes the Food and Energy sectors, increased by 0.2% for December, keeping the 12-month Core CPI at 2.6%. Increases to Core CPI for December include recreation, airline fares, medical care, apparel, personal care and the education index. Decreases were posted in communication, used cars and trucks, as well as household furnishings and operations. The December economic data represents clean updates to all metrics following the end of the government shutdown on Nov. 12, 2025. The first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of 2026 will conclude on Jan. 28. While the Congressional Budget Office anticipates rate cuts in 2026 from the Federal Reserve, it may be too soon to expect one from the January meeting. Embattled Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who recently faced threats of criminal indictment from the Trump administration, announced a quarter-point reduction at the conclusion of the December 2025 meeting. “Velera's payment trends reflect strong consumer spending that propped up the overall economy in 2025,” said Ryan Myers, SVP, Advisors Plus, Velera. “The Fed cut rates in December, and while more cuts are expected in 2026, they’ll likely come slowly given weak job growth. That means spending should hold up, but it will likely be concentrated among higher-income households — widening the K-shaped economy. Credit unions need to get comfortable segmenting their members and tailoring products to manage risk without missing out on payment revenue from more affluent consumers.” Key takeaways for December include:
December closed out the year with growth rates similar to those seen for much of 2025, as debit activity growth outpaced credit activity growth.
Debit purchases increased by 4.6%, with the Money Services and Services sectors accounting for 80% of the growth. Credit purchases were up 1.8%, with the Service sector accounting for two-thirds of the entire increase. For December, debit transactions were up 2.4% and credit transactions rose by 1.6%.
For the cumulative three-month holiday period (October-December), growth in spending during the 2025 season surpassed results for the same period in 2024. Debit purchases were up 6.8% and credit purchases were up 1.7% year over year. For growth among the three large retailers during the same period, Amazon, Walmart and Target finished first, second and third, respectively, mirroring 2024.
Average credit card account balances closed out December 2025 at a yearly high of $3,029, a modest 0.6% (or $18) increase year over year. Credit card balance growth throughout 2025 was moderate, rising 2.3% since January compared with the 3.3% pace in 2024.
The 12-month rate of inflation through December remained unchanged at 2.7%. The largest contributing factor to the increase was shelter, followed by food/groceries and energy.
BLS posted the first set of clean economic updates following the government shutdown, which ended on Nov. 12. The next FOMC meeting will conclude on Jan. 28, with the Fed facing lackluster job growth numbers for 2025. While there are expectations of interest rate cuts in 2026, it may be too soon for a cut to materialize in January, following the quarter-point reduction on Dec. 10 that took the federal funds target rate to 3.50%–3.75%.
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Source: Company press release. 
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