Thursday, January 19, 2023
Separately, the CRM giant Salesforce reported that global online sales topped $1.14 trillion during the 2022 holiday season, and $270 billion in the United States, driven largely by consumers who made online purchases and picked up their merchandise at brick-and-mortar stores.
"The last two years of retail sales have been unprecedented, and no one ever thought it was sustainable," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. "Nonetheless, we closed out 2022 with impressive annual sales and a respectable holiday season despite historic levels of inflation and interest rate hikes to cool the economy. Consumers shopped in record numbers and retailers delivered positive holiday experiences to inflation-wary consumers."
All told, Americans spent $889.3 billion during the 2022 year-end holiday season. The NRF had predicted a sales bump of between 6 percent and 8 percent, to total between $942.6 billion and 960.4 billion. The 5 percent increase is in line with a 4.9 percent average holiday sales growth for the past 10 years, the organization said.
The NRF tally excludes sales by automobile dealers, gas stations and restaurants, focusing instead on core retail sales. In December, alone, retail sales were down 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted, from November, but were up 5 percent unadjusted year over year, the NRF said. By comparison, retail sales were down 0.5 percent year over year in November, following a surge of early holiday shopping in October.
The NRF's calculations are based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, which reported overall retail sales in December—including auto, gas and restaurant sales—were down 1.3 percent from November, but up 6 percent over December 2021.
"We knew it could be touch-and-go for final holiday sales given early shopping in October that likely pulled some sales forward, plus price pressures and cold, stormy weather," explained Jack Kleinhenz, the NRF's chief economist. "The bottom line is that consumers are still engaged and shopping despite everything happening around them."
NRF data and the sentiment expressed by Kleinhenz seem to echo an analysis reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations showed a decline in monthly household spending for December 2022, "even though spending growth remains well above pre-pandemic levels."
According to the NRF, November through December sales charted year-over-year gains in all but two of the nine retail categories tracked. The biggest gains were in online, grocery and general merchandise stores, the NRF said. Online and other non-store sales were up 9.5 percent over the same two-month period in 2021, NRF added.
Salesforce said its analysis of data from over 1.5 billion shoppers at retail sites it serves around the globe showed online sales were lower than during the 2021 and 2020 year-end holiday seasons. However, it added that Cyber Week deals and buy online, pickup in store (BOPIS) offerings helped drive success for many retailers in 2022.
Nearly one out of every five orders placed globally during the holiday season were via BOPIS, Salesforce reported. BOPIS adoption by consumers peaked at 35 percent of all online orders the Friday before Christmas as shoppers retrieved last-minute gifts, the firm said.
Retailers also drove sales in the run up to Christmas with increased discounts, Saleforce reported. In fact, shoppers saw better deals than during the 2021 holiday season: discounts averaged 21 percent in 2022, compared to 19 percent the prior year, the firm said. Top discount categories included beauty, skin care and makeup, with an average discount of 29 percent, and general apparel and handbags, with discounts averaging 27 percent.
"Retailers closed out the 2022 holiday season with stronger online sales growth than expected – driven in large part by U.S. demand, steeper discounts on peak days, and BOPIS options," said Rob Garf, vice president and general manager of retail at Salesforce.
In addition to online sales, the NRF reported notable sales increases at grocery and beverage stores (7.8 percent) and at electronics and appliance stores (5.7 percent). More modest sales increases were recorded for general merchandise stores (3.8 percent), sporting goods stores (3.5 percent) and health and personal care stores (2.8 percent). 
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