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on the role of the "FDA of Payments." The Electronic 9. The U.S. financial services community will face a
Transactions Association will have no effect on this, mandate for real-time, good funds push payments
notwithstanding any lobbying effort it may mount. within the next five years

5. Consumers are demanding alternative payment Mandate from whom – consumers, merchants or
types payment processors? We have this now. It's called
Fedwire. I have been trying to find out where this
Consumers are quite happy to continue to swipe rumor originated. It appears to have come from a
their mag stripe cards in card readers. It is faster than payment blog that also sponsors a Payments 101 kind
taking out a mobile phone, unlocking it and entering of seminar for aspiring cash managers. It costs $1,000
payment information. Consumers want to do what is a day to attend the class. (This makes me question
easiest and fastest for them, period. They have little whether I'm in the right business.) Meanwhile, I've
interest in merchants' payment processing costs or never heard a consumer or merchant ask for a real-
issues. Remember "Green's Rule" (I can hear Paul time, good funds payments push, but I will keep my
Green saying this now): "If you are a merchant, you ears open.
have to take any payment type that the
consumer wants to tender." And the
corollary: "No payment type ever goes Economists estimate the underground
away."
economy to be somewhere between 8
6. Innovation in the card business
will allow underbanked/unbanked to 14 percent of total gross domestic
Americans to participate in the cashless
economy product. This could amount to as

I recently attended a presentation by much as $2 trillion.
a company called DoubleBeam, which
enables precisely this, so I am prepared
to say that this will happen – probably
next year.
The tendency to exploit
7. Banks will develop alternatives to traditional This talk about payment experts' predictions makes me
checking and debit wonder if some of them live in a parallel universe. I see
this in my home town of Healdsburg, which is inundated
I wonder how things such as Federal Deposit during the annual grape crush by tourists driving luxury
Insurance Corp. insurance, Suspicious Activity cars, eating $50 entrees at local restaurants, drinking wine
Reports, and annual intensive audits by highly trained that costs at least $40 a bottle, and staying in hotels that
bank regulators – who are increasingly focused on cost $400 a night.
suspicious activities, money laundering and fraud –
will be affected by these new payment types. Don't As one of our local pundits, Richard Thomas, said, "The
hold your breath. mentality of these consumers wouldn't even let them think
of putting a $10 wine near their lips for fear their teeth will
8. B2B payments will migrate from checks fall out. And of course, there's no shortage of local wineries
that will take advantage of this mentality."
I have been hearing this since I worked at First Chicago
Bank & Trust in the mid-1990's, and we were focused Perhaps we are seeing this type of behavior in purveyors
on a project to electronify purchase order and invoice of new payment offerings. I will close with another of
information. This obviously did not happen. However, Thomas' comments: "If restaurants charge corkage to
it will happen, but not the way you think it will. remove corks from your wine bottle, is it called 'screwage'
when you have a screw top?"
Business-to-business payments will still be made by
check. They just will be all electronic, with no paper Brandes Elitch, Director of Partner Acquisition for CrossCheck Inc.,
checks created in the first place. These are called has been a cash management practitioner for several Fortune
electronic payment orders, and we can use them now. 500 companies, sold cash management services for major banks
I look forward to spending a great deal of time on and served as a consultant to bankcard acquirers. A Certified
this in 2014. Remember, all payments begin and end Cash Manager and Accredited ACH Professional, Brandes has a
in the demand deposit account. Anything else is an Master's in Business Administration from New York University and
intermediary. a Juris Doctor from Santa Clara University. He can be reached at
brandese@cross-check.com.

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