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Mastercard expects ecommerce sales to rise 59.3 percent in-store, and taking advantage of new retrieval options
between Oct. 11 and Dec. 24, compared to the same period such as curbside pick-up and 'buy online pick up in store',
in 2019. NRF's overall spending data includes double-digit retailers are going to have to be firing on all cylinders
increases for online and other brick-and-mortar sales to meet customer expectations in an already difficult
between 11 percent and 15 percent to total between $218.3 environment."
billion and $226.2 billion, driven primarily by online sales.
That's up from $196.7 billion in 2020. While rising online sales are a product of the COVID-19
pandemic, Emilie Kroner, vice president for retail and
Adobe Analytics paints an even more optimistic outlook. commerce at Mastercard, believes the change is permanent
It forecasts Americans will spend $207 billion shopping for many. "Upwards of 80 percent of the shift to digital
online between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, 10 percent more than will be permanent," she said in a Nov. 3 briefing.
they did during the same period in 2020.
Consumers are also embracing new payment methods
Surging demand for online shopping, coupled with like buy now pay later (BNPL). Online revenue from BNPL
supply chain challenges, is having an impact on product has been 10 percent higher this year than in 2020 and 45
availability. Compared to January 2020, the prevalence of percent higher than in 2018, according to Adobe's data.
out-of-stock messages has risen 172 percent going into the Shoppers are also using BNPL for less expensive items,
holiday season, Adobe reported. Adobe said it "expects with the minimum order value for BNPL dropping 12
it to remain at this level, increasing for certain products percent, year over year, to $225.
throughout the season," adding that categories with the
highest out-of-stock levels include apparel, sporting "Once again, this year's holiday shopping season will look
goods, baby products and electronics. different than the past year's in terms of how and when
purchases are made, as well as types of gifts that are
"We are entering a second holiday season where the given," said Marshal Cohen, NPD's chief retail industry
pandemic will dictate the terms," said Patrick Brown, vice adviser. But not in terms of shopping fervor.
president of growth marketing and insights at Adobe.
"Limited product availability, higher prices and concerns Spending on food and drink
about shipping delays will drive another surge towards "Grocery spending shot up at the onset of the pandemic
ecommerce, as it provides more flexibility in how and and has continued to increase," said Steve Markenson,
when consumers choose to shop." director of research and insights at the Food Marketing
Multichannel shopping and delivery Institute. Online grocery shopping jumped from 15 percent
of weekly grocery spend in February 2020 to 22 percent in
A recent survey by Oracle found 20 percent of consumers October 2021. "But brick and mortar [grocery] shopping
plan to do most of their shopping in-store, while 47 percent remains strong, with 40 percent of those who don't shop
expect to split purchases between the online and brick- online indicating they won't change," Markenson said.
and-mortar channels. Sixteen percent plan to retrieve McNamara added, "some of that is inflation related, but
items at curbside. Adobe expects curbside pickup to be an not all."
even bigger deal, accounting for 25 percent of all online
orders this holiday season, spiking to 40 percent of all Recent FMI research found that 58 percent of shoppers
online orders on December 22 and 23. have concerns about being able to purchase groceries for
holiday meals, but that number hasn't changed since the
"The holidays promise to test a retailer's ability to serve summer, suggesting consumers are not overly concerned
customers how and where they want to shop," said Mike about product shortages, Markenson said.
Webster, senior vice president and general manager of
Oracle Retail. "With customers shopping both online and Restaurant sales have been strong much of the year,
although sales at restaurants located in urban business
areas remain depressed, according to McNamara. He
A Also find us on lso find us on FFacebook, acebook, added that strong restaurant sales growth will likely
L LinkedIn & inkedIn & TTwitter for the witter for the continue through year end.
mos NPD said among consumers it surveyed who are planning
most up-to-date stories, t up-to-date stories,
can’t miss events and newest an’t miss events and newest
c to celebrate with food and beverages, the mean spend will
industry announcements.ustry announcements. be $163; mean spend on liquor and wine is expected to be
ind
$120. The firm also found that among consumers planning
to purchase experience gifts, 42 percent planned gifting
food/beverage experiences.
Patti Murphy is senior editor at The Green Sheet and self-described pay-
ments maven of the fourth estate. Follow her on Twitter @GS_PayMaven.

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