Juniper Research Ltd. projected the number of consumers using OEM-Pay – the moniker used to describe mobile payments delivered by original equipment manufacturers, such as Apple Inc. and Samsung Corp. – will for the first time exceed 100 million by midyear and surpass 150 million by the end of 2017. Juniper estimates total combined contactless payment user market share for Apple Pay, Samsung Pay and Google’s Android Pay reached 41 percent in 2016, up from 20 percent the year before. It projected future contacless payment market share for this dominant OEM trio will hit 56 percent by 2021, when the total user base could top 500 million.
"We believe that as contactless usage gains traction and consumers/merchants recognize the speed and convenience it offers, then, as in European markets, there will be a further and significant increase in availability at the point of sale," stated Juniper researcher Nitin Bhas. According to Apple, the proportion of U.S. retailers supporting Apple Pay rose from 4 percent directly after its 2014 rollout to 35 percent in late 2016. For comparison, following are Juniper's estimates on how the major three are stacking up in terms of number of users over the three years spanning from 2015 through 2017, to date.
Number of Apple Pay, Samsung Pay and Android Pay contactless users (millions)
2015
Apple Pay 15
Samsung Pay 3
Android Pay 2
2016
Apple Pay 45
Samsung Pay 18
Android Pay 12
2017
Apple Pay 86
Samsung Pay 34
Android Pay 24
Based on Juniper's projected numbers, Apple Pay will take a commanding lead in user base, but alternative wallet options will also fare well as each establishes a position among consumers.To offer some perspective, payment services delivered through Apple, Samsung and Google expanded significantly in 2016, reaching 13, 12 and 9 global markets apiece, respectively, and an active user base nearing 74 million worldwide. Juniper said it believes the real challenge facing Apple and its rivals will be to ensure the infrastructure is in place for consumers to make in-store payments on a broader scale than is available today.
On the commercial side of payments, Juniper analysts found 2015 and 2016 to be watershed years for host card emulation (HCE), which is designed to enable safe contactlass payments. With HCE, payment credentials are stored in a secure shared repository rather than on the device itself. Researchers estimated that at least 194 banks had rolled out HCE-based services through the end of 20l6. Other beneficiaries of contacless payments include loyalty and charitable organization programs. "Juniper expects PayPal, already near ubiquitous in the online space, to rapidly deploy a portfolio of contactless payment and loyalty solutions that will allow it to compete effectively for market share," analysts noted.
Juniper anticipates such markets as the United Kingdom to drive contactless payments in the charity sector. "In the UK and Ireland, for example, Visa is working with organizations to trial charity donation boxes fitted with contactless readers," Juniper wrote. "According to Barclaycard, 11 charities began a four-month trial in September 2016 using 100 of the contactless boxes." The initial results were impressive; donations more than tripled. 
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