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Vosburg said Mastercard has commitments from issuers representing 70 per- ing cash, according to Visa's analysis.
cent of its U.S. card base to get contactless cards into consumers' wallets. "[M] "And to some extent, that's because if
any of them have a significant number of contactless cards in the market al- you're just doing a small transaction
ready," he said, adding that contactless-enabled terminals are now installed you don't want to give your card and
and functioning at merchants representing 65 percent of current U.S. Master- swipe it or dip it," Jenkyn said. "But
tercard card transactions. Worldwide, Mastercard reported, contactless pay- with tap-to-pay, it's easier than cash.
ments (using cards and mobile devices) surged 40 percent in the first quarter. And so we're expecting a significant
displacement transaction lift like
Data Fiserv provided to The Green Sheet points to a 13 percent increase in we've seen in other markets as tap-
contactless payments initiated using cards and mobile devices from March to-pay takes hold and people really
through May via Cover devices. Jane Chae, director of product marketing for build that muscle memory."
Clover, said Fiserv expects the trend will continue after the pandemic passes.
"We've seen that contactless payment usage has been steady since the week of Sarah Grotta, director of the debit and
May 10," she said. alternative products advisory service
at Mercator Advisory Group, isn't
"We're seeing real growth in contactless," added Derek Webster, founder and convinced contactless payments will
CEO of CardFlight, the company behind SwipeSimple POS software. Between have staying power. "There will be
March 2 and June 7, contactless payments (using cards and mobile devices) a temporary increase in contactless
were up 35.4 percent at CardFlight merchants, compared to a 3.8 percent in- payments due to a change in shop-
crease in dipped card transactions. Examples of business sectors embracing ping patterns," but "not necessar-
contactless include auto repair, plumbing, HVAC, pool maintenance, towing ily an enduring change in consumer
and limousine services. "If contactless is available, there's a preference for it," payment habits," she wrote in March.
Webster said.
Debit, ecommerce trends
Jenkyn said Visa sees opportunities in migrating more cash to electronic pay- have staying power
ments with contactless. More than half of all transactions under $10 are paid us-
Consumers are also moving more
credit card purchases to their debit
cards, Jenkyn said. A similar trend
occurred following the 2008 financial
crisis and again in late 2018 when the
federal government shut down, he
noted. "There's a consumer psyche of
not spending someone else's money
but spending their own," he said.
"We've done some analysis internal-
ly based on the past which suggest
there could be $100 billion annually
of credit to debit shift that happens
over time."

Grotta offered a different perspec-
tive. The non-prepaid debit card mar-
ket has been growing steadily for the
last few years, with the cards com-
monly used for everyday essentials.
Consumers spent a lot of money on
essentials in the lead up to and early
days of state stay-at-home orders, but
it was a temporary blip, she suggest-
ed. "Even though online and mobile
purchases will fill in for some trans-
actions typically carried out in per-
son, the online and mobile channels
are dominated by credit, not debit,"
she wrote.

She further noted that Mercator's
most recent consumer survey data re-
vealed that 42 percent prefer to pay
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