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"The strength in credit card demand and access coincided
Insider’sreport with the record growth in credit card balances over the past
year," the New York Fed said in a press release. "Looking
on payments ahead over the next 12 months, households anticipate they
will be less likely to apply for an auto loan, mortgage or
mortgage refinance loan, but report a higher average
likelihood of applying for a credit card or credit card limit
Consider today’s increase."

Consumers showed their willingness to spend online and
economic upside in-store over the Thanksgiving holiday. "As we expected,
a record number of consumers shopped in stores each day

By Patti Murphy during the five-day shopping period," said Matthew Shay,
NRF president and CEO. "Of the 196.7 million holiday
ProScribes Inc. weekend shoppers, nearly 123 million shopped in stores,
up from approximately 105 million in 2021, a 17 percent
'm not an economist. I'm just a working stiff old increase."
enough to have witnessed quite a few wild eco-
nomic swings. I'm talking sky-high inflation when Adobe Analytics reported that Americans spent $5.3
I mortgage rates were north of 18 percent and major billion online Thanksgiving Day, up 3 percent over 2021,
recessions when unemployment rates ventured into dou- with mobile shopping driving 55 percent of online spend.
ble-digit territory. And that was all during a single decade, Online spending on Black Friday totaled $9.1 billion; on
the 1980s. So, I'm a little perplexed by all the talk about a Cyber Monday consumers spent $11.3 billion online, Adobe
coming recession. Or is it inflation? As I write this column, said.
Americans are coming off a record-breaking Thanksgiving
weekend spending spree. In all, 196.7 million Americans Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures online and
hit the stores or shopped online during the five-day shop- in-store spending across all forms of payment, and is not
ping holiday that began Thanksgiving Day, according to adjusted for inflation, found in-store sales were up 10.5
the National Retail Federation. Yet, in the same news feed percent over 2021 from Thurs., Nov. 24 through Sun.,
where I learned this, other headlines portended economic Nov. 27. Ecommerce sales during those four days were up
calamity. 12.5 percent over 2021 sales, Mastercard reported. Cyber
Monday brought 10.9 percent year-over-year growth for
I don't believe anyone knows for sure which direction the ecommerce sites, while in-store sales rose 9.2 percent that
economy is headed. Too many external factors are at play, day, according to Mastercard. Spending at restaurants and
like wars (economic and military), natural disasters and a apparel and electronics stores charted the largest gains.
potential resurgence of COVID, to name a few. Attitudes
also play a big role. If the prevailing economic attitude is "Thanksgiving weekend retail sales experienced growth
positive, that typically plays out as increased spending, online and in-store as deals across channels enticed
investment and hiring. The inverse is also supposed to consumers to shop where and when it was convenient,"
be true. But these are not "typical" times. On two separate said Steve Sadove, Mastercard senior advisor. "Not
days in March of 2020 U.S. stock exchanges lost a greater only did consumers get their holiday shopping in [over
share of value than occurred in the stock market crash of Thanksgiving weekend], they also dined out with family
1929. Yet, just a week later, the exchanges posted one of the and friends," added Michelle Meyer, Mastercard chief
largest single daily percentage gains ever recorded. economist for North America.

U.S. gross domestic product—which measures spending, The NRF predicts that retail sales during the 2022 year-end
investments and exports—fell into negative territory in the holiday season will total between $942.6 billion and $960.4
first two quarters of this year, triggering concerns over an billion, which works out to an increase of between 6 and
impending recession, only to grow at an annual pace of 2.9 8 percent over 2021. Per-person spending is expected to
percent in the third quarter. average $832.84.
"This holiday season cycle is anything but typical," said
Strong consumer spending NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. "NRF's holiday
forecasts take a number of factors into consideration,
Meanwhile, recent reporting points to strong consumer but the overall outlook is generally positive as consumer
spending and credit demand. The Federal Reserve Bank fundamentals continue to support economic activity."
of New York, which regularly surveys consumers on their
credit usage and expectations, reported in November that Other experts share his optimism. "Shoppers are continuing
demand for credit cards prevails even as demand for other to spend despite inflation and economic headwinds, and
forms of credit slackens. while higher prices will drive some of the increase in holiday

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