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CoverStory

of February. Even if a longer-term The online channel registered the largest increase at 19.1 percent over
agreement is reached between Congress 2017, Mastercard said. In terms of shopping categories, apparel and home
and the White House the backlog at SBA improvement saw the best growth, increasing 7.9 percent and 9.0 percent,
could leave many small businesses in a respectively, over 2017 sales totals. "From shopping aisles to online carts,
lurch. Plus, the contentious relationship consumer confidence translated into holiday cheer for retail," said Steve
between Congress and the White House Sadove, senior Mastercard adviser and former CEO of Saks Inc.
could trigger future shutdowns.
Despite strong consumer spending, economists warn that recession fears
"Lenders and borrowers are trying to linger. "Traditional indicators point to a recession, perhaps in the second
figure out how to be better prepared half of 2019 or 2020," Constance Hunter, principal and chief economist at
should this happen again," Cerminaro KPMG LLC, told reporters at the NRF Big Show. She suggested continued
noted. strong consumer spending will be "the ballast for keeping any recession
from getting worse."
Retail sales strong,
recession in offing Blitz, the economist with TS Lombard, predicted any recession "will most
likely occur in 2021."
Despite the uncertainty created by the
government shutdown, as well as stock
market volatility and the ongoing trade Patti Murphy is senior editor at The Green Sheet and president of ProScribes Inc. Follow her
war, the NRF has said it is optimistic on Twitter @GS_PayMaven.
about retail spending this year. It is
forecasting retail sales growth between
3.8 percent and 4.4 percent and sales
totalsl between $3.82 trillion and $3.84
trillion this year.
NO GOOD MERCHANT
"We believe the underlying state of the
economy is sound," said Matthew Shay,
NRF president and CEO. "The biggest LEFT BEHIND
priority is to ensure that our economy
continues to grow and to avoid self-
inflicted wounds. It's time for artificial
problems like trade wars and shutdowns
to end, and to focus on prosperity, not For over 30 years, Electronic Merchant Systems has been
politics." dedicated to ensuring the success of their Agents. Learn
how we can help you grow your business and portfolio.
Preliminary estimates indicate retail
sales in 2018 grew 4.6 percent over 2017
to total $3.68 trillion, which beat the
NRF's forecast of 4.5 percent growth. LEARN MORE:
Online and other non-store sales were
up 10.4 percent and totaled $682.8 billion
for 2018. The NRF said it expects online 866.272.5247
sales to continue growing at that pace this • CNP Specialists emsagent.com
year. NRF numbers exclude automobile, • Industry Leading Portfolio
gas station and restaurant sales. The Management Tools
NRF said its 2018 sales numbers are
based on Commerce Department data • Retail Experts
through November and NRF estimates • Latest Next Day Funding
for December. Window in the Industry

Spending data published by Mastercard
revealed that retailers racked up more
than $850 billion in sales between
Thanksgiving and Christmas. That's a
5.1 percent increase over 2017 year-end
holiday spending, making it the best
holiday season for retailers in six years.
This despite the government shutdown
starting before the season ended.
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